The bicycle industry, much like the car market before it, may be overhyping the return of new bike sales. Are we “drinking our own Kool-Aid” by expecting significant growth in new sales to continue? Currently, 60-70% of global bike sales are new, but with rising costs, sustainability concerns, and better-quality pre-owned options, the used bike market now accounts for 30-40% of total sales—and growing.
This mirrors the car industry, where pre-owned sales now dominate at 80%. With bikes built to last, platforms like Cycle Exchange and Buycycle are making it easier to buy high-performance used bikes for less. While the overall bike market is expected to grow 5-7% annually, e-bikes are leading that growth, with 9-11% CAGR, rather than traditional new bikes.
It’s tempting to believe new traditional bike sales will again boom, but we may be tripped up “drinking the Kool-Aid” of past successes. Just as in the car industry, new sales volumes have been static for over 20 years, while the pre-owned market has surged. A similar shift is now unfolding in cycling.