March should bring optimism for bike retailers—longer days, better weather, and rising sales. But Perceptor PHI (product health indicator), a lead indicator, tells a different story. The bicycle market isn’t stabilizing—it’s retreating.
PHI typically bottoms out in January sales, when retailers clear old stock. Yet, PHI has now fallen below those levels. Since February’s high, PHI has dropped ~26%—a worrying sign. Today, nearly half (49%) of bikes remain discounted, with several brands slashing prices by more than 50%.
For context, at the COVID market peak, PHI was close to 1.0—the highest it can be. Today, it’s just 0.13. That’s a long way down.
This level of volatility makes it incredibly difficult for bike retailers to survive. How do you plan stock, pricing, and promotions when the market swings so wildly? More importantly, which brands do you drop, and which do you invest in?
A clear divide is emerging with winners and losers. Lapierre, Mondraker, and Marin (primarily MTB brands) have strengthened significantly since January, whilst many big-name brands are weakening even further.
Retailers can’t afford to guess where the market is going. Perceptor AI tracks 88 brands and 60,000 data points, providing real-time pricing intelligence to protect margins and optimize sales.👉 Join our AI Knowledge waitlist—starting at just £49! Making AI insights accessible to all. Contact me to secure your spot.